https://repositorio.uai.cl//handle/20.500.12858/6750 2026-07-15T11:23:32Z 2026-07-15T11:23:32Z Flores Donoso, Martín Ignacio https://repositorio.uai.cl//handle/20.500.12858/5878 2026-06-17T17:30:05Z

Predictability v/s Accuracy: An empirical evaluation of the Chilean Exchange Rate with the Chilean Survey of Professional Forecasters Flores Donoso, Martín Ignacio We evaluate the predictability and efficiency of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar (CLP). We evaluate the forecast performance through four approaches: (1) a comparison with a naïve benchmark under using a quadratic loss function, (2) Mean Directional Accuracy relative to a pure luck benchmark, (3) the correlation between SPF and the target variable, and (4) a range analysis of the respondents. Our analysis spans from April 2012 to April 2024, with a specific focus on the period from June 2018 to April 2024. Out-of-sample results reveals that SPF is consistently outperformed by the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. Nevertheless, SPF correlations are strong and statistically significant at short, mid, and long horizons. Therefore, CLP is predictable but inaccurate, with the bias playing an important role. To address this, we propose a bias adjusted forecast. This adjusted forecast outperforms the more competitive benchmark, the DRW+, at mid and long horizons.

Olivares Venegas, Sebastián Guillermo https://repositorio.uai.cl//handle/20.500.12858/5877 2026-06-17T17:35:50Z 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z

Multiple Equilibria in the Entry Game of a Two-Sided Monopolistic Platform Olivares Venegas, Sebastián Guillermo This paper explores the entry problema in platform markets with incomplete information using the global games approach. It models competition as a two-stage extensive-form game, where firms first decide on entry and then determine strategic variables in a Cournot framework. By applying Theorem 1 from Harrison and Jara-Moroni (2021), the análisis reveals that as uncertainty about platform attractiveness decreases, firms with lower entry costs are more likely to enter. The study further examines how maximizing platform profit involves optimizing fees and seller numbers, and how entry thresholds vary with costs. The findings offer insights into equilibrium selection, platform design, and regulatory implications, highlighting how firms’ entry decisions are influenced by market dynamics.

2024-01-01T00:00:00Z Gutiérrez, María de los Ángeles https://repositorio.uai.cl//handle/20.500.12858/5876 2026-06-17T17:29:16Z 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z

Macroeconomic Impact of Energy Transition Gutiérrez, María de los Ángeles We examine the macroeconomic effects of the energy transition, focusing on the impact of oil prices on GDP, productivity and inflation. We find that energy dependence on fossil fuels increases vulnerability to oil price shocks, negatively affecting Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Using the Solow decomposition and including energy as part of the capital stock, we find two key effects: The Price and Scale Effect, in which higher energy prices increase production costs and reduce TFP; and The Recomposition Effect, in which greater use of domestic renewables boosts TFP by reducing reliance on non-renewable imports. Our findings for Chile between 2001 and 2019 the TFP adjustment for energy factors provides a complemen- tary and enriched view of productivity, especially in periods or contexts with high volatility in energy consumption or prices. Finally, using a New-Keynesian DSGE model calibrated for Chile, we examine the macroeconomic consequences of the energy transition. A counterfactual scenario shows that, without di- versification of the energy matrix, the economic impact of higher oil prices would have been more severe, with larger GDP declines, higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and a steeper fall in TFP, highlighting the benefits of Chile’s shift to a more renewable energy matrix.

2024-01-01T00:00:00Z Sepúlveda Hurtado, Leonardo Antonio https://repositorio.uai.cl//handle/20.500.12858/5875 2026-06-17T17:34:11Z 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z

Empirical evidence of the ecosystem service of forests in Chile, in local climate regulation Sepúlveda Hurtado, Leonardo Antonio The capacity of large forest units to influence local weather has been well stud- ied. Evidence from the Amazon suggests that these forests can affect regions deep within the continent through a spillover effect in wind direction, which promotes vegetation growth. Are we therefore witnessing an impact of an ecosystem service provided by forests in regulating local weather? In this work, I test this hypoth- esis for central-south Chile, because of the presence of a large forestry industry and remnants of native forests. Using satellite remote sensing data spanning the last two decades and a Spatial-Panel model to estimate the impact of the spatial effects of forest units. A positive correlation between forest units has been found suggesting the existence of this phenomenon. Given these discoveries, when test- ing heterogeneous effects by municipalities of an increase of forests NDVI, suggests the existence of a positive externality, but a direct mechanism that increases the production in nearby croplands, because of the better conditions given by forests, meaning an increase in the income of the agricultural related workers, remains still unclear because ambiguous results.

2024-01-01T00:00:00Z